PNG Government Protects Local Industries

By: Andrew A
4th December 2017

The PNG Government has take a bold stand in protecting the local industries with an increase in tax for competing products.

These ‘Protectionary Measures” by Government will ensure that the local industries will thrive and be abel to have an upper-hand in competing with similar products from overseas.

Similar protection is offered to local beef suppliers and other agriculture based companies operating in Papua New Guinea which are partly owned by locals.

The revived Ilimo Farm which has seen an investment of K128m will employ over 150 fulltime staff and produced 13 million litres of dairy products. The dairy farm will produce a range of products from milk, yogurt, ice cream and other dairy snacks.

A similar farm will be setup in Lae

 

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The National

7th September 2017

THE Ilimo Dairy Farm in Central will cost about US$41 million (about K128m)  to complete, says National Planning Minister Richard Maru.
He recently visited the farm to see the progress.
The project is being developed by Innovative Agro Industry Ltd.
Ilimo Dairy Farm is located in the Kairuku-Hiri district of Central.
The shareholders equity partners of the project include IAI at 50 per cent, the government at 20 per cent and Central government owns 30 per cent.
Further financing, facilitated by IAI, is provided by Bank Leumi, of Israel. The farm is expected to create employment for more than 150 fulltime employees.
It is estimated that Papua New Guinea imports around 13 million litres of dairy products annually.
At full capacity, the Ilimo dairy farm will produce five million liters of dairy products annually, including fresh milk, flavoured milk, yogurts, icecream and other dairy snacks.
By replacing imports, the farm is expected to slash consumer prices by at least 40 per cent.
Maru was briefed about the construction phase, which is expected to be completed by November, with products on the shelves by next January.
The dairy cows have arrived from New Zealand and are at the facility.
“Putting cash into the people’s hard work is starting a programme of finalised inclusion,” he said.
“We need to engage our people now and stop the rhetoric of the inclusion slogan of ordinary hard working Papua New Guineans and inject much-needed cash into local economies.”
“llimo Dairy is scheduled to be completed within a short 12-month period, is yet another example of the government’s public-private partnership programme, which continues to create a wealth of opportunities for our people.
“We are helping our people to spend money locally while creating opportunities at the village level. In this particular partnership, IAI have proven once more that they are serious about developing the agriculture industry in Papua New Guinea.
“The government is deliberately investing in the dairy farm to reduce the importation of over K400 million in dairy products that Papua New Guinea imports
annually, which we can produce locally.
“Papua New Guinea will need a further three to four dairy farms of the same size as lllimo to produce enough volumes of dairy products to meet our needs.
“The government will be working with the Morobe provincial government to identify suitable land for the setting up of our second dairy farm in Lae depending on the success of the farm and processing plant at IIlimo.”

http://www.thenational.com.pg/ilimo-farm-ready-milk-opportunities-cut-imports-pleasing-says-minister-maru/

 

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2018 National Budget – Economic & Development Policies

FOREWARD

It is my great pleasure to deliver the 2018 National Budget which is my first substantive budget as the Treasurer in the new O’Neill-Abel Government. The 2018 Budget marks the beginning of the new Medium Term Fiscal Strategy 2018-2022 that aims to confront the current set of challenging fiscal conditions with vigour, including the current subdued economic conditions and depressed revenue, strengthen the macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals of the economy, and get the economy moving forward.

At the same time, the Budget will the Government’s social spending priorities and improve the opportunities for people and the standard of living for ordinary Papua New Guineans.

In recent years the PNG economy has endured a series of economic shocks following the rapid growth brought about by the commodity boom and the construction of the PNG LNG project. Commodity prices have fallen and remain relatively low and the severe drought in 2015 added to the difficulties.

A foreign exchange imbalance has developed which has further constrained economic growth, together with rising debt levels and domestic financing constraints. We have had to respond to these shocks by cutting discretionary spending, mostly from the capital budget, which has further suppressed economic conditions.

The shocks have had a much greater impact than initially anticipated and continue to have an adverse impact as we end 2017.

Total government revenue has collapsed as a share of the GDP from 20 per cent in 2012 to 13.4 per cent in 2016 and is expected to decline further to below 13 per cent by end-2017. This has resulted in larger than anticipated budget deficits and delayed the projected return to a balanced budget.

Furthermore, within the overall expenditure envelop, a number of categories have expanded, particularly personnel emoluments and interest costs. As part of its decisive and responsible management of the economy, when the lower economic growth rates were realised, the Government pursued fiscal consolidation with a significant reduction in expenditure over the past few years.

However, given the difficulty of even slowing the growth in these rigid categories of expenditure, especially against a backdrop of the continuation of subdued economic conditions, most of the burden of adjustment fell on the much-needed and productive capital expenditure Budget.

The 2018 Budget and medium-term strategies we have formulated will combat these adverse trends and get the economy moving forward again with some momentum. The strategy will pursue three parallel paths: (i) to halt the declining revenue trend then lift collections onto a higher sustained rising trend over the medium term; (ii) to reign back locked-in and less productive expenditure categories onto more sustainable paths to create space for a lift in more productive capital spending that will get the economy moving significantly forward again; and (iii) improve debt management and cost of financing and extinguishment of the foreign exchange imbalance.

The international outlook is becoming more positive, commodity prices have started to trend higher and international capital, particularly into emerging markets, is starting to expand as investor’s appetite for risk improves. We need to be ready to capitalise on these more positive international developments. The APEC summit in 2018 will allow PNG to showcase its

readiness for enhanced capital and trade flows. The 2018 Budget will provide the platform for fixing our fiscal problems and then building optimism for growth and development.

The Government announced its intentions in a 100 Day Plan to kick start the Alotau Accord 2. The 25 policy actions of the Plan were specific interventions aimed at restoring fiscal discipline, addressing the foreign exchange imbalance, enhancing revenue, strengthening our economic base and improving governance and were reinforced in the 2017 Supplementary Budget. The 2017 Supplementary Budget and 2018 Budgets are Points 1 and 2 in this Plan.

The Accord also operationalises the longer term development plans based on Vision 2050 and StaRS. These will be articulated against specific indicators and sectoral interventions in the upcoming Medium Term Development Plan 3, according to the National Planning Act, 2016. There is a specific focus on reinvigorating growth through SMEs and the tourism and agricultural sectors that will underpin broad based and inclusive economic growth structures.

In the 2018 Budget the Government will establish in the commercial banks a dedicated SME fund of K100.0 million for concessional lending, and an agricultural commercialisation fund of up to K100.0 million. Furthermore, a number of key policies associated with the 2018 APEC agenda will be progressed, such as advancing financial inclusion through financial literacy programs, adopting digital financial services and spreading mobile banking capabilities.

Importantly, the Government will continue to invest in key national infrastructure programs in 2018, particularly, the Highlands Highway, coastal jetties, the missing link roads program, hydro and gas power generation stations, and the international submarine cable project. These are important transformational projects that will reduce the cost of doing business, improve market access for rural farmers, and improve and lower the cost of communications for businesses and consumers.

The Government’s key policy priorities and programs, such as the Services Improvement Program, tuition fee free and free health care programs will be maintained to ensure the board- based consumption and delivery of goods and services to our people.

The 2018 National Budget Expenditure envelope is set at K14,718.0 million against a revenue projection of K12,731.0 million. This translates into a fiscal deficit of K1,987.2 million, or 2.48 per cent of GDP. This is expected to maintain the total debt-to-GDP ratio at just above 32 per cent of GDP, which is well within the approved range of 30.0 per cent to 35.0 per cent of GDP prescribed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act (amended 2017).

The 2018 Budget is consistent with the stringent and prudent fiscal anchors established in the new MTFS 2018-22 which comprise:

  • Lifting the total revenue (excluding grants) to GDP ratio to 14.6 per cent in 2018 and to target 14.0 per cent by 2022;
  • reducing government expenditure from 18 per cent of GDP in 2018 to 16 per cent in 2022;
  • reducing the government debt to GDP ratio to 30 per cent by 2022 and ensuring the sustainability of the debt profile, including the shift towards external financing through budget support loans from the World Bank and ADB and through an inaugural US Dollar bond issuance program;
  • maintaining the non-resource primary fiscal balance on a trajectory that will achieve a zero annual average balance over the medium term (to 2025);
  • ensuring that Personnel Emolument costs are contained and brought down from 49 per cent of total non-resource revenue in 2017 to 31 per cent by 2022; and
  • ensuring that two-thirds of primary expenditure is allocated to key MTDP Enablers and that the public investment to GDP ratio is lifted from 4 per cent of GDP in 2017 to at least 6 per cent by 2022.

To fund the adjustment costs and lift the economic growth momentum, yet stay within the set medium term fiscal anchors, the 2018 Budget will focus decisively on revenue through the first ever Medium Term Revenue Strategy which has been developed with the International Monetary Fund.

The Strategy has had substantial input from the Government’s 2015 comprehensive Tax Review and recent technical assistance from an International Monetary Fund team. Some of the key initiatives to be implemented in 2018, include the establishment of a large taxpayers’ office to improve compliance and tax service, a number of tax measures to raise additional revenue and the announcement of the drafting of a new Tax Administration Act to modernise and simplify tax administration.

The Government is also introducing legislation per the 100 Day Plan compelling all statutory authorities and other government agencies collecting non-tax revenue under statute to remit the collection of those funds to the Consolidated Revenue Fund. The Government has also commenced the process of transferring trust fund balances and assets back into the Consolidated Revenue Fund and enhancing the dividend flows from state-owned enterprises.

Financing the 2018 Budget will be critical and much will depend on the portfolio shift towards lower-average cost external debt and this will be achieved by seeking highly concessional World Bank and ADB budget support funding that will be combined with a US Dollar commercial bond program. The portfolio shift will also: firstly, relieve pressure on the tight domestic security market allowing the development of the less risky, longer term domestic bond market; secondly, increase the level of credit to the private sector; and, finally facilitate the extinguishment of the foreign exchange imbalance.

There are important adjustments to the tariff regime and housekeeping tax legislation.

Overall, the 2018 Budget is a forthright step towards strengthening the resilience of the PNG economy to withstand future economic shocks. It lays the groundwork for fiscal consolidation and it will reignite the economic growth momentum and boost optimism for the future. It will provide the platform to showcase the best of PNG to the world at the upcoming APEC summit.

It is “Time to pull our socks up and go for it”.
I commend the 2018 Budget to the Honourable Members and to the people of Papua New

Guinea.

……………………………………
HON. CHARLES ABEL, MP
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER FOR TREASURY

http://www.treasury.gov.pg/html/national_budget/2018.html

 

 

Moody’s downgrades Papua New Guinea’s rating to B2 with stable outlook

Global Credit Research – 25 Apr 2016

Singapore, April 25, 2016 — Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded the Government of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings to B2 from B1. The outlook on these ratings is stable. This concludes the review for downgrade initiated on 25 February 2016.

The key drivers of the downgrade are:

• Strains on foreign currency reserve adequacy due to heightened balance of payments pressures that will continue over the next two years; and

• The persistence of unfavorable domestic funding conditions for the government that have increased refinancing risks and eroded debt affordability.

The stable outlook is based on Moody’s view that PNG’s medium-term economic growth prospects remain robust, although lower commodity prices and the consequent fiscal and economic adjustment will weigh on growth outcomes in 2016 and 2017. In addition, a reduction in fiscal deficits has helped to slow the rise in government debt, which remains low among similarly-rated countries.

While the review was prompted in part by the impact of structurally weaker prices of oil and related commodities on PNG’s economy and fiscal accounts, we have determined that the continuation of the pressures on government and external liquidity first flagged when we assigned a negative outlook in 2015 were more relevant.

 

RATINGS RATIONALE

DOWNGRADE TO B2

First driver: Continued deterioration in foreign currency reserve adequacy

PNG’s gross foreign currency reserves have fallen sharply to $1.69 billion at end-2015, down from a peak of $4.26 billion at end-2011, reflecting the continuation of the balance of payments pressures that prompted our assignment of a negative outlook on PNG’s rating last year. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) production drove the large rise in exports and the restoration of the current account surplus since 2014. However, this has failed to stem the deterioration in PNG’s external payments position as cross-border debt servicing and other demands for foreign currency as represented by the large financial account outflows have overwhelmed the supply of hard currency available to the central bank, the Bank of Papua New Guinea (BankPNG).

BankPNG has intervened to stem a disorderly adjustment of the exchange rate, and placed the costs of this intervention at $828.5 million in 2015 alone. It also introduced exchange controls last year that effectively rationed foreign currency.

Although production at the country’s largest gold and copper mine resumed in March 2016, associated export receipts will only mitigate, not eliminate, the ongoing balance of payments pressures. Reserve adequacy has weakened accordingly, with our estimate of short-term external debt repayments rising to over 140% of the stock of foreign currency reserves as compared to 83.7% in 2014. Moreover, the challenging environment for external liquidity has fed back to the real economy through weaker sentiment, which is already suffering from the decline in global prices for PNG’s commodity exports.

Second driver: Pressures on the government’s liquidity position due to unfavorable funding conditions

Declining fiscal revenue and constrained domestic financing conditions have weakened the government’s liquidity position. Although commencement of LNG production supported economic activity in 2015, it has not benefited revenue to the same degree, because of lower LNG prices which track oil price trends with a lag of a few months. We estimate revenue as a share of GDP fell to 17.1% in 2015, the lowest level in at least a decade, and project a further decline in this ratio this year.

Wide deficits in recent years have led to higher interest rates for government securities, as domestic investors have lowered their exposure to sovereign risk by either shortening duration or limiting their holdings of government debt. Refinancing risks have thus risen as the proportion of domestic market debt comprised of short-term obligations has increased, and debt affordability has deteriorated rapidly on account of the higher interest rates demanded in primary auctions. Short-term debt now accounts for 48.1% of total domestic market debt as of end-2015, while interest payments as a share of revenue—our preferred measure of debt affordability—has nearly doubled to 9.8% in 2015 from 5.3% in 2013.

Central bank absorption has offset somewhat the decreased local appetite for government bonds—BankPNG held 21.0% of domestic market debt as of September 2015, up from 7.1% two years earlier. Nevertheless, poor funding conditions have led the government to curtail spending, further weighing on economic growth.

 

STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook balances the weak near term growth outlook against more robust economic prospects over the longer-term. In particular, the successful implementation of the PNG LNG Project has demonstrated operational efficiencies, profitability, and a relatively low cost structure, which enhance PNG’s competitive advantage in extractive industries, and bolster the prospects of similarly large projects, even against the backdrop of structurally lower commodity prices. Such projects include a potential expansion of the preexisting PNG LNG Project, an entirely new development called the Papua LNG Project, and the Wafi-Golpu gold mine. While we do not expect material progress on the implementation of these projects until late 2017, the resulting upturn and stabilization in growth will, in our view, alleviate external and fiscal pressures from escalating. In the interim, however, Moody’s expects the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts to maintain low government debt levels compared to similarly rated peers, while funding conditions and external liquidity will remain tight. An upturn and stabilization in growth and exports will, in our view, keep external and fiscal pressures from escalating. In addition, Moody’s expects the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts to keep government debt levels low as compared to similarly rated peers.

 

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP

Moody’s would consider upgrading the rating if increased non-debt creating external inflows lead to a material build-up in foreign currency reserves and improve reserve adequacy. A sustained improvement in the government’s fiscal and liquidity position accompanied by the restoration of the trend in debt consolidation would also be credit positive. Over the longer term, enhancements to potential growth and government revenue through the development of large projects, such as potentially significant additions to LNG and gold production, would also lead to upward pressure on the rating.

 

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN

Triggers for a further negative rating action include: (1) a reemergence of wide fiscal deficits that lead to a rapid rise in government debt; (2) a worsening of growth prospects that could ultimately weigh on fiscal and debt sustainability; (3) a further decline in foreign currency reserves.

 

COUNTRY CEILINGS

Moody’s has lowered Papua New Guinea’s long-term foreign currency (FC) bond ceiling to B1 from Ba3 as well as its long-term FC deposit ceiling to B3 from B2. PNG’s short-term FC bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at “Not Prime.” These ceilings act as a cap on the ratings that can be assigned to the FC obligations of other entities domiciled in the country.

  • PNG’s local currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba2.
  • GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 2,470 (2014 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)
  • Real GDP growth (% change): 9.9% (2015 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)
  • Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 6.4% (2015 Actual)
  • Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -3.9% (2015 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)
  • Current Account Balance/GDP: 20.9% (2015 Estimate) (also known as External Balance)
  • External debt/GDP: 69.2% (2015 Estimate)
  • Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience

Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983.

On 20 April 2016, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Papua New Guinea, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer’s economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer’s fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has not materially changed. The issuer has become increasingly susceptible to event risks. An analysis of this issuer, relative to its peers, indicates that a repositioning of its rating would be appropriate. Government and external liquidity risk have increased. Other views raised included: The issuer’s institutional strength/ framework, have not materially changed.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in December 2015. Please see the Ratings Methodologies page on http://www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody’s rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider’s credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on http://www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see http://www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody’s legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on http://www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

 

Christian de Guzman
VP – Senior Credit Officer
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody’s Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Is PNG Bankrupt

By Government Insider

Recently, commentators on social media have been preaching doomsday on Papua New Guinea and comparing it to a ‘Greece-like economy,’ which will be declared bankrupt.

Is Papua New Guinea really on the verge of bankruptcy?

How do we define bankruptcy and when does a country become bankrupt?

Bankruptcy occurs when individuals take on more debt than they are able to service. This means they can no longer can repay their debt and default.

Throughout the World, Governments borrows money locally and internationally to finance its development goals. These borrowing is called ‘Public Debt’ or ‘National Debt.’

There are two standard ways to measure the extent of National Debt: Gross Financial liabilities as a percentage of GDP or net financial liabilities as a percentage of GDP.

The difference between Gross Debt and Net Debt is how the former is very large for some countries, and some analyst believe that net debt is more an appropriate measure of a debt situation for any particular country.

However, not all countries are the same and their financial assets differs therefore, gross debt as a percentage of GDP is the most commonly used government debt ratio.

According to 2015 Budget in June, Papua New Guinea’s Debt to GDP ratio stands at 33.5 percent and on current trend will rise to 41.3 percent. Is this cause for concent? Not so much as we think it should be.

Let’s look around the world, in February 2015 these are the Debt to GDP for 40 countries around the World.Global debt to gdp

Most analyse says that 50% Debt to GDP ratio is a healthy position for any Government and looking at this chart, Papua New Guinea is way below 50% of the healthy Debt to GDP Ratio.